Adaptation of sea turtles to climate warming: Will phenological responses be sufficient to counteract changes in reproductive output?

Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change since their reproductive output is influenced by incubating temperatures, with warmer temperatures causing lower hatching success and increased feminization of embryos. Their ability to cope with projected increases in ambient temperatures will depend on their capacity to adapt to shifts in climatic regimes. Here, we assessed the extent to which phenological shifts could mitigate impacts from increases in ambient temperatures (from 1.5 to 3°C in air temperatures and from 1.4 to 2.3°C in sea surface temperatures by 2100 at our sites) on four species of sea turtles, under a "middle of the road" scenario (SSP2-4.5). Sand temperatures at sea turtle nesting sites are projected to increase from 0.58 to 4.17°C by 2100 and expected shifts in nesting of 26-43 days earlier will not be sufficient to maintain current incubation temperatures at 7 (29%) of our sites, hatching success rates at 10 (42%) of our sites, with current trends in hatchling sex ratio being able to be maintained at half of the sites. We also calculated the phenological shifts that would be required (both backward for an earlier shift in nesting and forward for a later shift) to keep up with present-day incubation temperatures, hatching success rates, and sex ratios. The required shifts backward in nesting for incubation temperatures ranged from -20 to -191 days, whereas the required shifts forward ranged from +54 to +180 days. However, for half of the sites, no matter the shift the median incubation temperature will always be warmer than the 75th percentile of current ranges. Given that phenological shifts will not be able to ameliorate predicted changes in temperature, hatching success and sex ratio at most sites, turtles may need to use other adaptive responses and/or there is the need to enhance sea turtle resilience to climate warming.

Histochemical and immunohistochemical studies of the gonads and paramesonephric ducts of male and female hatchlings of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta).

The sex of neonatal sea turtles is difficult to determine, because neonates lack heteromorphic sex chromosomes and dimorphic external characteristics; internal dimorphic morphology is defined at hatching. We used histochemical staining and made measurements in the gonads and paramesonephric ducts (PD) of both sexes to determine structural differences in female and male loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) hatchlings. We detected differences in the gonads and PD between the sexes including the amounts of mucopolysaccharides, collagen and elastic fibers. We determined that the thickness of the gonadal cortex and the diameter of the PD lumen are reliable sex-specific characteristics. We also assessed immunolocalization of aromatase, an enzyme complex that converts androgens to estrogens, and found differences in the localization and intensity of aromatase immunostaining in the gonads and PD of female and male hatchlings. Comprehensive studies of the sexual differences of sea turtles are important for conservation programs.